What is this document?

I want to understand more about how some of the UK political parties (🤍 Reform UK, 💙 Conservatives, ❤️ Labour, and 🧡 Lib Dems) are performing against one another on the major social media platforms (TikTok, Twitter, Facebook and YouTube).

Why does this matter?

Polling notoriously sucks.

Analysing social media has been a better predictor than polls and betting markets for some recent elections, such as Brexit and the US 2016 and 2020 elections.

UK has been mostly a two party system for a while (💙 Conservatives and ❤️ Labour). Could this change?

Discrepancies are opportunity on betting markets.

What could be done better?

The analysis here is pretty surface level (absolute views/followers and growth/trend). An improvement would be to take into account sentiment, swing seat locales, etc…

Any related polls?

• https://www.survation.com/mrp-update-first-mrp-since-farages-return/

  

  • Takeaways:
    • ❤️ Labour to win.
    • 🤍 Reform isn’t priced in.
    • 🧡 Lib Dems doing better than social data would indicate.

• https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/voting-intention

  

  • Takeaways:

    • ❤️ Labour to win.

    • 🤍 Reform recently overtook 💙 Conservatives and 🧡 Lib Dems catching up too.

    • 18-24 age-group reported 15% voting 🤍 Reform.

      

      • TikTok data below makes me think this could be even higher.

Any trade ideas?

• Betting odds: ≥7 seats for 🤍 Reform

  

• Betting odds: 🤍 Reform vote share

  • Spread bet >16% vote share could yield